On November 22, last year, I posted my first video at bilibili.com. I thought I jumped into a small pond on bilibili.com. Unexpectedly, it was an endless sea of knowledge area. I felt that Buyi Mao’s "Entering the Sea" was particularly sung for me, and I, at 30, was one of the waves. You can see from DannyData that the number of monthly active users of Bilibili was a noticeable growth after joining bilibil.com, which has reached 170 million in the first quarter of this year. I found that more and more shark-level colleagues have joined the sea of knowledge area, which makes me feel quite concerned: Do I still have a chance?
Today, I will analyze three aspects to judge how the uploaders have on the knowledge area of Bilibili been doing? Is there any chance for them in the future?
I'm Danny, talking about tech and cars. As usual, all information used in my video is authentic and first-hand. You're welcome to disagree with my arguments.
We use crawlers to analyze 391 content creators' data of "business science popularization" content, including half-Buddha, Lao Jiang, Li Ziran, IC lab, Surfer +, Intelligent Roadblock, etc. Based on their following list, we find out the uploaders of similar content. Plus, the user name is retrieved by keywords such as "commerce, brand, operation, and product", and then the user name is screened and judged through its introduction and release content. Finally, 7215 core data from July 15, 2016, to 2020 are obtained for analysis.
The Current Situation and Trends
First of all, the current situation and trends
Seen from the number of contributions, some people have been publishing content since 2016, but it has not been popular since the first half of 2016-2019, and the maximum monthly release is about 100. From December 2019 to January 2020, the number of contributions has improved slightly, and the number of uploaded videos has increased to about 200. In February 2020, the growth exploded, and the number of related topics was directly thousands. According to the Q1 financial report of Bilibili, the average monthly contribution volume of uploaders in the whole website increased by 138%, while the average monthly contribution volume of uploaders in Q1 in this field increased by 2000%. The epidemic may be the most crucial factor. Of course, activities such as the new year's party of Bilibili may also stimulate some uploaders to start to create. After March, with the return to work and production, many uploaders no longer have so much free time to create, and the number of contributions fell. But the number is still far higher than that before the epidemic broke out.
Let's take a look at the broadcast volume; the overall trend is similar to the number of video releases. From the view of broadcast volume, before August 2019, most of the video playback volume is relatively low. However, since August, the number of commercial popular science videos has been on the rise. Since November, it has entered a period of explosive growth, from 10 million to 75 million. It can be seen that increasing attention has further stimulated the creation of uploaders. After March, due to the impact of returning to production and work, the idle time of users was reduced, and the broadcast volume of commercial science popularization began to decline. However, the broadcast volume in June 2020 was still much higher than that in December 2019.
Now when we combine the two, we can see that from September to October in 2019, the number of videos has not changed much, but the number of plays has increased significantly. A similar situation is more evident from November to December. The number of videos has increased slightly, but the number of views has increased many times. In this period, "hot sales" began to appear in the field of popular commercial science, such as the man on Bilibili, whose name is inconvenient to disclose. Then, from January to February in 2020, many uploaders also saw this opportunity and began to make similar videos. During this period, the number of videos soared and reached a peak together with the broadcast volume.
Different from the number of videos and the number of views, the trend of the proportion of one- key-triple-supports is more " vanguard, "which also shows that the wider attention depends on the ratio of one- key-triple-supports to trigger the recommendation mechanism. Since June of 19, the proportion of "like, insert coins" and collections" began to rise, indicating that there are gradually some videos with outstanding quality. The proportion of inserted coins, likes, and the collection also increased significantly from September to October. Combined with the two parts, as mentioned earlier, we can see that this is a period of hot-sale products. However, with the explosive growth of the number of broadcasts and videos, there was no similar explosion in the proportion of one-key-triple-supports. Although the number of videos increased five times from January to February, perhaps a large number of new uploaders did not hand over more high-quality content. The ratio of "likes" and "inserted coins" was the closest in October of 19; the proportion of inserted coin dropped. Perhaps it is because, after the initial freshness, users increasingly feel that the video content is getting good, worthy of "likes," but not good enough to be worth two coins. I guess these users want to leave the coins to DannyData. Do you think I'm flattering myself?
We have drawn a timeline to help you understand this. From June 2019, uploaders gradually began to produce videos of higher quality. After a period of continuous production, they finally came to "hot-sale videos" from September to October. After getting more support of distributed flow, commercial accessible science content finally ushered in an exponential growth in the number of broadcasts from November to December. More uploaders noticed this trend from December to January 2020 and began to engage in producing the content of popular commercial science. However, most of the uploaded video quality or data can not reach the "blockbuster" level. Therefore, the growth of broadcast volume is not as rapid as before, and the proportion of one-key-triple-supports has not increased or even decreased slightly. After April, with the return to production and work, both sides of supply and demand were affected by the massive flow environment and declined. Meanwhile, some works of uploaders who have entered this field have not received excellent feedback, so they have gradually withdrawn from the market. In this case, commercial science popularization is likely to be dominated and promoted by a small number of KOL (famous uploaders).
Therefore, we have sorted out a list of 391 uploaders for commercial science popularization. The uploaders in this list have accumulated 440 million (441,238,093) broadcasts and 13 million fans (13,002,826). The whole pattern is typical of one super uploader with multi-strong uploaders, which forms a long tail behind. For example, "half Buddha immortal" occupies 40% of the total broadcast volume and 1/3 of the fans. Except for half Buddha, more than 80% of the broadcast volume and followers are concentrated on the top 20 uploaders. Most of the uploaders only have 2-digit fans and 3-digit broadcast volume.
我们在回看这些头部up主的入坑时间，在2017年7月，商业科普露出萌芽，几个后来成为商业科普Top20的up主开始发视频，但播放量一直不温不火，但质量稳步提升。到了19年6月：开始有些up主（比如老蒋、智能路障）进入商业科普，做出了一些优质内容，有了自己的老粉。到9月，整个类型视频开始放量。三连比例也开始一路上升。等到19年11月，更多优质up主开始入局，比如半佛、IC实验室、普拉斯还有包括我们DannyData等等。在推荐算法和口碑的加持下，播放量持续增长。也有Top20 up主在2020年1-3月重心入场（林超、 老华等），当然也有些是把之前做的不好的视频删了，但是大多数新进的up主的作品无人问津。到2020年3-4月：供需两端都多出来大量空闲时间，共同使市场达到顶峰。且2020年Q1供需两端的同比增长率，均远高于B站全站Q1同比增长率 ，到了2020年4月：或许由于复产复工，流量大环境受影响，供需两端均开始下降，同时很多新进up主没有火，产量也逐渐下降，但是从总体来看，现在商业科普领域已经从没啥人看到了一个百家争鸣的新阶段。
Looking back at the time when these top uploaders entered the pit. In July 2017, commercial science popularization began to pop up. Several uploaders who later became the top 20 uploaders of commercial science popularization began to produce videos, with tepid popularity and steadily improved quality. In June of 2019, some uploaders (such as Laojiang and Intelligent Roadblocks) entered this field and produced some high-quality content, accumulating some diehard fans. By September, this type of videos began to be rising in volume, with the increasing proportion of one-click-triple-supports. By November 2019, more high-quality uploaders entered the board, such as Banfo, IC Lab, Plus+ and DannyData. With the support of algorithm and word-of-mouth recommendation, the amount of play continues to grow. From January to March in 2020, some top 20 uploaders entered (Lin Chao, Laohua, etc.), and of course, some of them have deleted the videos that were not well done before, but most of the works of the new uploaders were ignored. By March to April 2020, a lot of spare time on both sides of supply and demand jointly made the market reach the peak. The year-on-year growth rate of both ends of supply and demand in 2020 Q1 is far higher than that of Bilibili. By April 2020, perhaps due to the return to work, the environment of flow was affected, and both supply and demand began to decline. Meanwhile, many new uploaders haven’t got popular, and their output was gradually declining. But on the whole, the field of commercial science popularization has seen a new stage from no one watching to the hot contention among hundreds of uploaders.
Opportunities and Values to be Discovered
After analyzing the current situation and trends, let's look at the second aspect: what opportunities and values are waiting to be discovered.
As the saying goes, the bigger the pond, the bigger the fish. We nobody can have a chance to develop only when Bilibili grows. We have processed the quarterly data published by Bilibili and eliminated the impact of the rapid growth caused by the epidemic by regression computation. It is estimated that in half a year, Bilibili will have 200 million monthly active users. Please type “awesome” on the screen.
These achievements cannot go without turning text into video. As a three year unsuccessful writer on the WeChat official account, I found my youth back on Bilibili. We can see that many official account writers and even the media have joined the trend of video streaming. Meanwhile, as Bilibili has broken the dimensional wall, the text also wants to get involved, such as Banfo, Bro Peng of Geek Park, and so on. It is not difficult to see that this is a great migration. In the case of high saturation and low opening rate of the official accounts, the field of video with sufficient growth space has become a great new continent for text creators.
But as long as there are maritime explorers, there will surely be boats to be overturned. For example, boss Dai, who ranked Top 10 among WeChat official accounts, has only 21,000 fans with few interactions on Bilibili. To a certain extent, the video audience and the text viewers are not completely interlinked. The decision to turn the text into video means that all the glory and precipitation before are zeroed, which may be the crux of the current conversion of the top official accounts into the videos or even the video accounts.
Content and Products
Last, the third aspect: content and products. Let's have a look at what the uploaders really got and how they won the favor of the audience.
A question first, is the more videos produced, the more fans follow?
You can see from this cruel scatter diagram that the number of videos of the top uploaders tends to be less than 50. Less in quantity but excellent in quality is the best video production strategy at present, instead of the more, the better.
Furthermore, we analyzed the average ratios of likes/views, coins/views, and collections/views of a single video. It is found that the average ratios of the top 21 uploaders are much higher than those of others with more than 100 view amount. This is the magic of one click to support three times.
We further analyzed the correlation coefficient of the core data, and we found that the correlation coefficient between the number of likes and the amount of view is the highest. Therefore, in addition to the high quality of videos, it is very useful to ask for a like. So, dear fellows, stop dazing and give me a like.
Also, it can be seen from the ratio of views/bullet chats that Laojiang does best in stimulating real-time participation, discussion, and other interactive behaviors. So Laojiang is favored by the audience.
How to make good work? We can basically summarize it in this formula：
Work integrity = content + form
The content is all about clear logic, clear opinion, full of essence, and fun, while the form highlights the picture, the sound, the visual effects, the image of an uploader, and so on.
Sometimes there is no need to cover all the aspects. Maybe your video is extremely outstanding in one aspect. For example, you have a clear logic and a good-looking appearance, but the visual effects are extremely loose, which also form your unique style. You know who I am talking about, right?
Meanwhile, uploaders are also more sensitive about capturing hot topics. Take Luckin Coffee as an example, half of the uploaders have posted relevant content, and some have even posted quite a few.
The overall video tag cloud focuses on the topics "Internet, entrepreneurship, commerce, finance and economics". The top 21 uploaders are more diverse in the content, or even more "idle". Their high-frequency keywords also include "digital, social, Vlog, making money", and so on.
The most common topics include well-known figures like Jack Ma, Luo Yonghao, and Pony Ma, who are the favorite of uploaders, as well as Lei Jun, Musk, Li Jiaqi, and Jobs. Popular companies include Tencent, Apple, Bilibili, Huawei, Tesla, and Alibaba. So if you want to be an uploader, now you should know how to select the hot topics. Stop dazing and take a screenshot!
What’s more, the uploaders also need to shape their memory points, such as those slogans “kowtows in the mirror”, “do not blink”, “take me as the standard”, “welcome to disagree with my arguments”. Some memory points are based on personal characteristics, such as uploaders in the imitating section, protecting our Langbao, short curator, holes digger Danny, etc.
从视频长度分布来看，Top 21 up主的视频长度平均为11.7分钟，大多数视频集中在7-11分钟，这么看来，我还是太长了啊。
In terms of the video length distribution, the average video length of the top 21 uploaders is 11.7 minutes, and most of the videos last about 7-11 minutes. In this case, mine are still too long.
Finally, individual iterations vary from person to person. Let’s take DannyData as an example. At present, we have gone through three stages. The first stage is that I published articles on various platforms, that is, my unsuccessful experience as a writer for two or three years before, and developed the DannyData visualization tool at the same time. In the second stage, based on the DannyData tool and previous precipitation, I started to make the series of DannyData videos, which proved the effectiveness of MVP (Minimum Viable Products) and began to recruit team members. In the third stage, we started to iterate, diversify, and make more explorations. For example, in addition to the series of DannyData videos talking about companies, we also produced DannyPal which interviews with popular celebrities, DannyWiki talking about popular science, and we linkage with our partner Emma to make live streaming, etc. In the meantime, the applet version and web version of the DannyData tool have been released.
By the way, I’d like to say the DannyData tool is not just a data visualization tool. This is only the first step of our future layout, and the good show is yet to come.
Finally, I will end with the words of Laojiang in his interview with Geek Park:
“B站就像是 2014 年时的微信公众号，存在着自媒体的创业红利。它是一个窗口期，可能只有一至两年转瞬即逝的机会。”
"Bilibili is like the WeChat official account in 2014. There is a start-up bonus from the We Media, which is a window with chances for only one or two fleeting years. "
我是小丹尼，谈车说科技，别忘了帮我点赞三连关注，Techs Never Die, 回见。
I'm Danny, I talk about tech and cars. Don't forget to give me a like and subscribe to my channel. Techs never die, see you next time.、