半佛老蒋冲浪IC李自然等知识区up数据分析,你看我还有机会吗?【DannyWiki 06小丹尼】

2020-09-08 DannyData小丹尼 | 艾丹尼旗舰店


去年11月22日,我在小破站发了第一个视频,本来我以为自己跳入了小破站里的一片小池塘,没想到竟然是知识区茫茫无尽的大海,我感觉毛不易的《入海》就是为我唱的,30岁的我就是那中浪中的一朵,你可以从DannyData看出,小破站的月活跃用户数在我进入B站后有一个多么明显的增长,在今年一季度已达到1.7亿,而且我发现涌现了越来越多鲨鱼级别的同行也加入到知识区的大海中,这引得我不禁怅惘:你说我还有机会吗?

On November 22, last year, I posted my first video at bilibili.com. I thought I jumped into a small pond on bilibili.com. Unexpectedly, it was an endless sea of knowledge area. I felt that Buyi Mao’s "Entering the Sea" was particularly sung for me, and I, at 30, was one of the waves. You can see from DannyData that the number of monthly active users of Bilibili was a noticeable growth after joining bilibil.com, which has reached 170 million in the first quarter of this year. I found that more and more shark-level colleagues have joined the sea of knowledge area, which makes me feel quite concerned: Do I still have a chance?


那今天我就从三个方面来分析下,B站知识区up主们,到底过的怎么样?以后还有机会吗?

Today, I will analyze three aspects to judge how the uploaders have on the knowledge area of Bilibili been doing? Is there any chance for them in the future?



我是小丹尼,谈车说科技,本集视频仍然遵循我的洁癖标准:随你反驳。

I'm Danny, talking about tech and cars. As usual, all information used in my video is authentic and first-hand. You're welcome to disagree with my arguments.



我们用爬虫重点分析了391位“商业科普”类内容up主数据,包括你们熟悉的半佛、老蒋、李自然、IC实验室、冲浪普拉斯、智能路障等,再基于他们的关注列表,找到同类内容up主。再加上以“商业、品牌、运营、产品”等关键字检索用户名,再通过其简介和发布内容做筛选判断,最终得到2016-2020年7月15日共7215条核心数据进行分析。

We use crawlers to analyze 391 content creators' data of "business science popularization" content, including half-Buddha, Lao Jiang, Li Ziran, IC lab, Surfer +, Intelligent Roadblock, etc. Based on their following list, we find out the uploaders of similar content. Plus, the user name is retrieved by keywords such as "commerce, brand, operation, and product", and then the user name is screened and judged through its introduction and release content. Finally, 7215 core data from July 15, 2016, to 2020 are obtained for analysis.


01 趋势与现状

The Current Situation and Trends


先说第一个方面,现状与趋势

First of all, the current situation and trends



从投稿数来看,2016年就开始有人陆续发布内容,但从2016-2019年上半年都不温不火,每月发布量最多也就100左右。直到2019年12月到2020年1月开始,投稿数小有起色,视频数量小幅度上升至200左右。2020年2月开始突然爆发增长,相关主题直接破千。根据B站Q1财报,全站up主月均投稿量增长138%,而该领域up主Q1月均投稿量增长了2000%。疫情可能是最主要因素,当然,B站跨年晚会等出圈活动也可能刺激了部分up主开始创作。3月之后,随着复工复产,很多up主不再有那么多空闲时间创作,投稿数迎来回落。但是数量仍然远高于疫情开始前。

Seen from the number of contributions, some people have been publishing content since 2016, but it has not been popular since the first half of 2016-2019, and the maximum monthly release is about 100. From December 2019 to January 2020, the number of contributions has improved slightly, and the number of uploaded videos has increased to about 200. In February 2020, the growth exploded, and the number of related topics was directly thousands. According to the Q1 financial report of Bilibili, the average monthly contribution volume of uploaders in the whole website increased by 138%, while the average monthly contribution volume of uploaders in Q1 in this field increased by 2000%. The epidemic may be the most crucial factor. Of course, activities such as the new year's party of Bilibili may also stimulate some uploaders to start to create. After March, with the return to work and production, many uploaders no longer have so much free time to create, and the number of contributions fell. But the number is still far higher than that before the epidemic broke out.


 

再看播放量,整体走势和视频发布数类似,从播放量来看,在2019年8月之前,大部分视频的播放量都比较低。但是从8月开始,商业科普的视频播放量就开始往上走了, 从11月开始就进入爆发增长期,一路从1千万总播放量攀升到7500万总播放,可以看到关注度的上升,也进一步激励了up主创作。3月之后,受复产复工影响,用户空闲时间也少了,该商业科普播放量也开始下降,但2020年6月的播放量仍远高于2019年12月。

Let's take a look at the broadcast volume; the overall trend is similar to the number of video releases. From the view of broadcast volume, before August 2019, most of the video playback volume is relatively low. However, since August, the number of commercial popular science videos has been on the rise. Since November, it has entered a period of explosive growth, from 10 million to 75 million. It can be seen that increasing attention has further stimulated the creation of uploaders. After March, due to the impact of returning to production and work, the idle time of users was reduced, and the broadcast volume of commercial science popularization began to decline. However, the broadcast volume in June 2020 was still much higher than that in December 2019.

 


现在我们把两者结合起来看,可以看到在2019年9-10月的时候,视频数量没有太大变化,但是播放数明显上涨了,类似的情况在11-12月更加明显, 视频数量略有上升,但是播放量翻了好多倍。可以看出在这段时间,商业科普领域内开始出现“爆品”,比如在B站那个不方便提姓名的男人。之后在2020年1-2月,有大量up主也同样看到了这个机会,开始做类似的视频,视频数在这段时间暴涨,和播放量共同达到顶峰。

Now when we combine the two, we can see that from September to October in 2019, the number of videos has not changed much, but the number of plays has increased significantly. A similar situation is more evident from November to December. The number of videos has increased slightly, but the number of views has increased many times. In this period, "hot sales" began to appear in the field of popular commercial science, such as the man on Bilibili, whose name is inconvenient to disclose. Then, from January to February in 2020, many uploaders also saw this opportunity and began to make similar videos. During this period, the number of videos soared and reached a peak together with the broadcast volume.

 

与视频数和播放量不同的是,三连比例趋势更“超前”一点,也侧面说明了,更广的关注度是要依托于三连比例触发推荐机制的。从19年6月开始,点赞投币和收藏的比例就开始上升了,说明逐步有一些质量比较突出的视频出来。9-10月投币比例爆发、点赞和收藏也有明显上升,结合上面两个部分,可以看出这是一个爆品时期。而之后随着播放量和视频数的爆发增长,三连的比例却没有出现类似的爆发。视频数量虽然在1-2月翻了5倍,但也许大量新进入的up主并没有交出更多高质量的内容。点赞比例和投币比例在19年10月最接近,之后投币比例就一路下滑。或许是因为经过最初的新鲜感后,用户越来越觉得视频内容还不错,值得“点赞”,但没有好到值得投两个币的程度。我猜这些用户是想把硬币留给DannyData,你们说是我自作多情了吗?

Different from the number of videos and the number of views, the trend of the proportion of one- key-triple-supports is more " vanguard, "which also shows that the wider attention depends on the ratio of one- key-triple-supports to trigger the recommendation mechanism. Since June of 19, the proportion of "like, insert coins" and collections" began to rise, indicating that there are gradually some videos with outstanding quality. The proportion of inserted coins, likes, and the collection also increased significantly from September to October. Combined with the two parts, as mentioned earlier, we can see that this is a period of hot-sale products. However, with the explosive growth of the number of broadcasts and videos, there was no similar explosion in the proportion of one-key-triple-supports. Although the number of videos increased five times from January to February, perhaps a large number of new uploaders did not hand over more high-quality content. The ratio of "likes" and "inserted coins" was the closest in October of 19; the proportion of inserted coin dropped. Perhaps it is because, after the initial freshness, users increasingly feel that the video content is getting good, worthy of "likes," but not good enough to be worth two coins. I guess these users want to leave the coins to DannyData. Do you think I'm flattering myself?

 


我们画了一条时间轴来帮你理解,2019年6月开始逐渐有up主开始做些质量更高的视频,在持续产出一段时间后,终于在9-10月等来了“爆款视频” ,在得到更多分发流量支持后,商业科普内容终于在11-12月迎来了播放量指数级增长。更多up主在12月到2020年1月的时候注意到了这个趋势,开始进入商业科普生产内容,但是大部分up的视频质量或数据不能达到“爆品”的水准,因此播放量的增长并不像之前那么迅猛,三连比例也基本没有增长、甚至略有下降。在4月之后,随着复产复工,供需两端均受流量大环境影响,出现下降。同时一些新进入这个领域的up主的作品一直没有得到很好的反馈,也就逐渐退出了这个市场。如果这样来看,商业科普领域很可能是由少量KOL(大up)来主导和推动的市场。

We have drawn a timeline to help you understand this. From June 2019, uploaders gradually began to produce videos of higher quality. After a period of continuous production, they finally came to "hot-sale videos" from September to October. After getting more support of distributed flow, commercial accessible science content finally ushered in an exponential growth in the number of broadcasts from November to December. More uploaders noticed this trend from December to January 2020 and began to engage in producing the content of popular commercial science. However, most of the uploaded video quality or data can not reach the "blockbuster" level. Therefore, the growth of broadcast volume is not as rapid as before, and the proportion of one-key-triple-supports has not increased or even decreased slightly. After April, with the return to production and work, both sides of supply and demand were affected by the massive flow environment and declined. Meanwhile, some works of uploaders who have entered this field have not received excellent feedback, so they have gradually withdrawn from the market. In this case, commercial science popularization is likely to be dominated and promoted by a small number of KOL (famous uploaders).

 


所以我们又整理了一份商业科普的391名up主的大名单,这些大名单里的up主累计收获了4.4亿次(441,238,093)播放量,和1300万人次粉丝(13,002,826)。整个格局是典型的一超多强,严重长尾,比如“半佛仙人”一人就切去了4成总播放量和1/3的粉丝人次。剔除半佛后,超过80%的播放量和粉丝数都集中在前20个up主上。大部分的up主只有2位数的粉丝,3位数的播放。

Therefore, we have sorted out a list of 391 uploaders for commercial science popularization. The uploaders in this list have accumulated 440 million (441,238,093) broadcasts and 13 million fans (13,002,826). The whole pattern is typical of one super uploader with multi-strong uploaders, which forms a long tail behind. For example, "half Buddha immortal" occupies 40% of the total broadcast volume and 1/3 of the fans. Except for half Buddha, more than 80% of the broadcast volume and followers are concentrated on the top 20 uploaders. Most of the uploaders only have 2-digit fans and 3-digit broadcast volume.

 


我们在回看这些头部up主的入坑时间,在2017年7月,商业科普露出萌芽,几个后来成为商业科普Top20的up主开始发视频,但播放量一直不温不火,但质量稳步提升。到了19年6月:开始有些up主(比如老蒋、智能路障)进入商业科普,做出了一些优质内容,有了自己的老粉。到9月,整个类型视频开始放量。三连比例也开始一路上升。等到19年11月,更多优质up主开始入局,比如半佛、IC实验室、普拉斯还有包括我们DannyData等等。在推荐算法和口碑的加持下,播放量持续增长。也有Top20 up主在2020年1-3月重心入场(林超、 老华等),当然也有些是把之前做的不好的视频删了,但是大多数新进的up主的作品无人问津。到2020年3-4月:供需两端都多出来大量空闲时间,共同使市场达到顶峰。且2020年Q1供需两端的同比增长率,均远高于B站全站Q1同比增长率 ,到了2020年4月:或许由于复产复工,流量大环境受影响,供需两端均开始下降,同时很多新进up主没有火,产量也逐渐下降,但是从总体来看,现在商业科普领域已经从没啥人看到了一个百家争鸣的新阶段。

Looking back at the time when these top uploaders entered the pit. In July 2017, commercial science popularization began to pop up. Several uploaders who later became the top 20 uploaders of commercial science popularization began to produce videos, with tepid popularity and steadily improved quality. In June of 2019, some uploaders (such as Laojiang and Intelligent Roadblocks) entered this field and produced some high-quality content, accumulating some diehard fans. By September, this type of videos began to be rising in volume, with the increasing proportion of one-click-triple-supports. By November 2019, more high-quality uploaders entered the board, such as Banfo, IC Lab, Plus+ and DannyData. With the support of algorithm and word-of-mouth recommendation, the amount of play continues to grow. From January to March in 2020, some top 20 uploaders entered (Lin Chao, Laohua, etc.), and of course, some of them have deleted the videos that were not well done before, but most of the works of the new uploaders were ignored. By March to April 2020, a lot of spare time on both sides of supply and demand jointly made the market reach the peak. The year-on-year growth rate of both ends of supply and demand in 2020 Q1 is far higher than that of Bilibili. By April 2020, perhaps due to the return to work, the environment of flow was affected, and both supply and demand began to decline. Meanwhile, many new uploaders haven’t got popular, and their output was gradually declining. But on the whole, the field of commercial science popularization has seen a new stage from no one watching to the hot contention among hundreds of uploaders.



03 机会与价值

Opportunities and Values to be Discovered



分析完现状趋势,我们再看看第二方面:有哪些机会与价值在等着被发掘。

After analyzing the current situation and trends, let's look at the second aspect: what opportunities and values are waiting to be discovered.

 

正所谓水大鱼大,B站做大了,我们这些小鱼小虾才有口饭吃。根据B站公开的季度数据做了回归,去除疫情带来的快速增长影响,预计再过个半年,小破站仍然可以达到2亿月活,同学们请把“公屏”打在真猛上。

As the saying goes, the bigger the pond, the bigger the fish. We nobody can have a chance to develop only when Bilibili grows. We have processed the quarterly data published by Bilibili and eliminated the impact of the rapid growth caused by the epidemic by regression computation. It is estimated that in half a year, Bilibili will have 200 million monthly active users. Please type “awesome” on the screen.


而这些成绩,都绕不开一个话题,文字内容转视频,作为一个三年的不成功公众号写手,我在B站找回了我的青春。我们能看到许多公众号创作者甚至媒体都加入到了视频化的浪潮中,在B站打破次元壁的同时,文字内容也想打入B站。比如半佛、极客公园那开公园的鹏哥等等。不难看出,这是一场大迁徙,在公众号高度饱和,低打开率的情况下,有着充分增长空间的视频领域就成了文字创作者们绝佳的新大陆。

These achievements cannot go without turning text into video. As a three year unsuccessful writer on the WeChat official account, I found my youth back on Bilibili. We can see that many official account writers and even the media have joined the trend of video streaming. Meanwhile, as Bilibili has broken the dimensional wall, the text also wants to get involved, such as Banfo, Bro Peng of Geek Park, and so on. It is not difficult to see that this is a great migration. In the case of high saturation and low opening rate of the official accounts, the field of video with sufficient growth space has become a great new continent for text creators.

 

但是有出海冲浪,就一定有翻船的探险家,比如公众号的Top10,戴老板,目前在B站官方账号只有2.1w粉丝,反响平平。这一定程度上说明,视频受众和文字受众是不完全相通的。决定从文字跨向视频的那一刻,就意味着之前所有的荣光和沉淀都要归零,这可能是目前头部公众号转视频甚至转视频号水土不服的症结所在。

But as long as there are maritime explorers, there will surely be boats to be overturned. For example, boss Dai, who ranked Top 10 among WeChat official accounts, has only 21,000 fans with few interactions on Bilibili. To a certain extent, the video audience and the text viewers are not completely interlinked. The decision to turn the text into video means that all the glory and precipitation before are zeroed, which may be the crux of the current conversion of the top official accounts into the videos or even the video accounts.


03 内容和产品

Content and Products

 

最后讲第三方面:内容和产品,看看各位up主八仙过海,如何获得各位观众老爷们的青睐。

Last, the third aspect: content and products. Let's have a look at what the uploaders really got and how they won the favor of the audience.


首先抛出一个问题:是不是视频发的越多,粉丝量就越高呢?

A question first, is the more videos produced, the more fans follow?


你可以从这张非常残酷的散点图看出,头部up主普遍发视频少于50个,少而精是当下最好的视频制作策略,不是视频发的越多越好。

You can see from this cruel scatter diagram that the number of videos of the top uploaders tends to be less than 50. Less in quantity but excellent in quality is the best video production strategy at present, instead of the more, the better.


另外,我们可以分析平均单个视频点赞/播放、投币/播放、收藏/播放比例,Top21的up主平均远高于其他播放量大于100的up主们,所以,这就是一键三连的魔力。

Furthermore, we analyzed the average ratios of likes/views, coins/views, and collections/views of a single video. It is found that the average ratios of the top 21 uploaders are much higher than those of others with more than 100 view amount. This is the magic of one click to support three times.


我们进一步分析核心数据相关性系数,可以看出点赞量与播放量的相关系数最高,所以一方面视频质量要高,另一方面顺便求个赞还是非常有用的,所以同学们,还点赞干啥?愣着呀。

We further analyzed the correlation coefficient of the core data, and we found that the correlation coefficient between the number of likes and the amount of view is the highest. Therefore, in addition to the high quality of videos, it is very useful to ask for a like. So, dear fellows, stop dazing and give me a like.

另外从播弹比可以看出,老蒋的内容激发即时参与、讨论等互动行为做的最好,看来妈妈们比较爱蒋宝。

Also, it can be seen from the ratio of views/bullet chats that Laojiang does best in stimulating real-time participation, discussion, and other interactive behaviors. So Laojiang is favored by the audience.


那如何做出一个好作品呢?我们基本可以概括为这个公式:

How to make good work? We can basically summarize it in this formula:


作品完整度=内容+形式

Work integrity = content + form



内容讲究的是逻辑清晰、有明确观点、干货满和有趣,而形式讲究的是画面、声音、特效、up形象等等。

The content is all about clear logic, clear opinion, full of essence, and fun, while the form highlights the picture, the sound, the visual effects,  the image of an uploader, and so on.


以上我说这些有时候也不需要面面俱到,有可能你的视频在某一方面极其突出,比如逻辑非常清晰,颜值又高,但画面和特效极其拉跨,反而形成了自己独特的风格,我说的是谁呢?你们懂的。

Sometimes there is no need to cover all the aspects. Maybe your video is extremely outstanding in one aspect. For example, you have a clear logic and a good-looking appearance, but the visual effects are extremely loose, which also form your unique style. You know who I am talking about, right?

 

与此同时,up主们关于热点的捕捉也比较敏感,就拿瑞幸为例,有一半的up主都发了相关内容,有的还发了好几条。

Meanwhile, uploaders are also more sensitive about capturing hot topics. Take Luckin Coffee as an example, half of the uploaders have posted relevant content, and some have even posted quite a few.


整体视频标签云图集中在“互联网、创业、商业、财经”几个话题,而Top 21的up主内容更多元,或者说叫更加“不务正业”,高频关键词还包括“数码、社会、Vlog、赚钱”等等。

The overall video tag cloud focuses on the topics "Internet, entrepreneurship, commerce, finance and economics". The top 21 uploaders are more diverse in the content, or even more "idle". Their high-frequency keywords also include "digital, social, Vlog, making money", and so on.



最常见得话题,知名人物包括马云、罗永浩、马化腾是up们的最爱,雷军、马斯克、李佳琪、乔布斯也有相当高的热度。热门公司包括了腾讯、苹果、B站,华为、特斯拉和阿里。想做up主的同学们知道热门选题了吧?还截图干啥?愣着啊。

The most common topics include well-known figures like Jack Ma, Luo Yonghao, and Pony Ma, who are the favorite of uploaders, as well as Lei Jun, Musk, Li Jiaqi, and Jobs. Popular companies include Tencent, Apple, Bilibili, Huawei, Tesla, and Alibaba. So if you want to be an uploader, now you should know how to select the hot topics. Stop dazing and take a screenshot!


另外,up主们还需要塑造自己的记忆点,比如Slogan对着镜子磕头、不眨眼、以我为准、随你反驳得男人们,还有一些个人特质梗,比如模仿区up主、保护我方浪保、短的馆长、坑王小丹尼等等。

What’s more, the uploaders also need to shape their memory points, such as those slogans “kowtows in the mirror”, “do not blink”, “take me as the standard”, “welcome to disagree with my arguments”. Some memory points are based on personal characteristics, such as uploaders in the imitating section, protecting our Langbao, short curator, holes digger Danny, etc.



从视频长度分布来看,Top 21 up主的视频长度平均为11.7分钟,大多数视频集中在7-11分钟,这么看来,我还是太长了啊。

In terms of the video length distribution, the average video length of the top 21 uploaders is 11.7 minutes, and most of the videos last about 7-11 minutes. In this case, mine are still too long.


最后,个体迭代方式人人不同,那就以我们DannyData为案例。目前我们经历了三个阶段,第一个阶段是我在各平台发了些文章,也就是我那之前两三年不成功的写手经验,同时在开发DannyData数据可视化工具。第二阶段基于DannyData工具和以往沉淀,开始做DannyData系列视频,证明了MVP最小可行性产品的有效性,同时开始招募团队成员。第三阶段开始迭代和多元化,做出更多探索,比如除了DannyData讲公司系列视频,还包括DannyPal大咖访谈、DannyWiki泛科普、还有与合伙人电动Emma联动、直播等等,与此同时,DannyData工具小程序版本和网页版本也要上线啦。

Finally, individual iterations vary from person to person. Let’s take DannyData as an example. At present, we have gone through three stages. The first stage is that I published articles on various platforms, that is, my unsuccessful experience as a writer for two or three years before, and developed the DannyData visualization tool at the same time. In the second stage, based on the DannyData tool and previous precipitation, I started to make the series of DannyData videos, which proved the effectiveness of MVP (Minimum Viable Products) and began to recruit team members. In the third stage, we started to iterate, diversify, and make more explorations. For example, in addition to the series of DannyData videos talking about companies, we also produced DannyPal which interviews with popular celebrities, DannyWiki talking about popular science, and we linkage with our partner Emma to make live streaming, etc. In the meantime,  the applet version and web version of the DannyData tool have been released.


顺便给大家透漏一句,DannyData工具绝不仅仅只是一个数据可视化工具而已,这只是我们未来布局走的第一步,好戏还在后面。

By the way, I’d like to say the DannyData tool is not just a data visualization tool. This is only the first step of our future layout, and the good show is yet to come.


最后,以老蒋在接受极客公园访谈时的一段话作为结尾:

Finally, I will end with the words of Laojiang in his interview with Geek Park:

“B站就像是 2014 年时的微信公众号,存在着自媒体的创业红利。它是一个窗口期,可能只有一至两年转瞬即逝的机会。”


"Bilibili is like the WeChat official account in 2014. There is a start-up bonus from the We Media, which is a window with chances for only one or two fleeting years. "



我是小丹尼,谈车说科技,别忘了帮我点赞三连关注,Techs Never Die, 回见。

I'm Danny, I talk about tech and cars. Don't forget to give me a like and subscribe to my channel. Techs never die, see you next time.、


文稿:Allen、Danny、扁担
剪辑/视觉:DannyData视频小组

Techs Never Die, see you next time.

往期回顾



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