字节微信之后,下一个被制裁的会是阿里巴巴吗?【DannyData小丹尼第13集】

2020-08-16 DannyData小丹尼 | 艾丹尼旗舰店


说起阿里,你的第一反应是什么呢?想认识要上市的蚂蚁金服同学帮我还花呗的请扣1,想让“对钱没兴趣的”马云帮我清空购物车的请扣2。
Speaking of Alibaba, what is your first reaction? If you want to know someone from Ant Financial Services Group which is going public soon to pay off my Ant Credit Pay, please type 1. If you want Jack Ma “who is not interested in money” to empty my shopping cart, please type 2. 

现在有很多人分析阿里过去的成功经验,而我更关心的是阿里未来能否继续成功,也就是阿里业务图中的中间、右半部分和阿里云,它们是否也能像蚂蚁金服那样成为互联网大腿呢?
Alibaba’s past success is analyzed by many people now, while I am more concerned about whether it can continue to be successful in the future, that is, can the middle and right half part of its business map and AliCloud also become Internet giants like Ant Financial Services Group?

那今天我从三个方面来谈谈,除了淘宝支付宝,阿里的下个战场是什么呢?
In this episode, I will answer the question in three aspects: Apart from Taobao and Alipay, what is Alibaba’s next battlefield?

我是小丹尼,谈车说科技。本集视频论据仍然遵循我的洁癖标准:随你反驳,所有论据都是阿里一手信息。
I’m Danny, I talk about tech and cars. As usual, all information used in my video is authentic and first-hand. You're welcome to disagree with my arguments, but don't doubt my sources.

这里我先纠正大家一个误区,我看经常有人说:“阿里总高调说自己要做一家102年的公司,可阿里这才成立20周年,走了才五分之一的路,马云怎么就退休了?难道马云不管阿里了吗?”
First, I would like to correct a misunderstanding. It is often said: “Alibaba always says in a high profile that it wants to be a 102-year-old company, but it has only been founded for 20 years, only 1/5 of the road, so why did Jack Ma retire? Did he leave Alibaba behind? " 

当然不是,马云和阿里仍然有着紧密联系。大家要知道,马云可是“老退休人”了,2006 年,他将阿里巴巴公司总裁职位让给卫哲。2013 年,他辞任阿里巴巴集团 CEO交给陆兆禧, 2019 年 9 月将集团董事局主席交付给张勇。虽说马云总说自己退休,但马云仍然是阿里的最高权力中心合伙人制度中的“永久合伙人”,阿里的“合伙人制度”和前段时间从阿里合伙人除名的最年轻前任合伙人蒋凡,非常值得单讲一集,这个等我以后再详细聊吧,你们感兴趣吗?
Of course not. Jack Ma still has close ties with Alibaba. You should know that Jack Ma is a “veteran retiree”. In 2006, he gave up the position of president of Alibaba to Wei Zhe. In 2013, he resigned as the CEO and handed it to Lu Zhaoxi, and in September 2019, he handed over the chairman of the board of directors to Zhang Yong. Although Jack Ma always says that he is retired, he is a “permanent partner” in Alibaba’s  co-partnership system of the supreme power center. This “co-partnership system”, as well as Jiang Fan, the youngest former partner who was removed from Alibaba’s partners some time ago, is very worthy of a single episode. I’ll talk about this in detail later. Does it appeal to you? 

说回我们的主题:阿里的下个战场是什么呢?
Back to our theme: what is Alibaba’s next battlefield? 

01 都给爷数字化

先说第一点:都给爷数字化。
The first point: digitizing all.

虽然小傲娇的马云说阿里看不到对手。但我偏要给阿里找一些直接对手,先说第一个对手:王兴的美团。
Although Jack Ma, who is a little arrogant, said Alibaba has no rival, I just want to find some direct opponents for Alibaba. The first one: Wang Xing’s Meituan. 

你可能会纳闷:“小丹尼,我怎么听别人都说阿里的最大对手是拼多多或背后的腾讯呢?你怎么非说是美团呢?”
You may wonder, "Well, Danny, I often hear from others that Alibaba’s biggest rival is Pinduoduo or Tencent? Why do you think it is Meituan?"

这还是和阿里的未来增长点和业务布局相关,阿里国内电商业务的最大竞争对手确实是拼多多和背后的腾讯,但本地生活业务最大竞争对手是美团,这也是王兴在饭否上频频挑衅阿里的背后原因。
This is also related to Alibaba’s future growth points and business layout. The two biggest competitors of Alibaba’s domestic e-commerce business are indeed Pinduoduo and Tencent, but that of the Local Life business is Meituan. This is also the reason for Wang Xing frequently challenging Alibaba on Fanfou.com. 

而我今天要重点讲阿里未来的增长点,大家都知道阿里过去的成功是因为“电商”,但对阿里未来更重要的业务是“本地生活”,而本地生活的背后逻辑就是阿里让那些传统行业“都给爷数字化”,这也是阿里在各种场合反复强调数字技术的本质原因。
Alibaba’s future growth point is my focus in this video. We all know that its past success was due to “e-commerce”, but the more important business for its future is “Local Life”, and the logic behind is that Alibaba is “digitizing” all the traditional industries. This is also an essential reason why Alibaba repeatedly emphasizes digital technology on various occasions. 

为了帮你更深刻理解阿里,这里我要引入一个“丹尼守城跑马模型”,模型的横轴代表了是守城防御,还是跑马圈地,说白了就是防守存量市场还是去开拓增量市场;纵轴代表了易垄断还是难垄断,至于垄断的深度分析,我在上集DannyData讲腾讯视频里详细聊过,感兴趣可以去翻。
To help you understand Alibaba more deeply, here I would like to introduce a “Danny Defense and Enclosure Model”, of which the horizontal axis represents whether it is a “guard and defense” or a “happy valley enclosure” business. To put it bluntly, it is to defend the stock market or to develop the incremental market. The vertical axis represents “easy to monopoly” or “difficult to monopoly”. As for the in-depth analysis of monopoly, I have already talked about it in detail in the last episode of DannyData about Tencent, and you can watch it if you are interested.


我用阿里的业务来举例你就明白这个模型了。
I’ll use Alibaba’s business as an example and you’ll understand this model.


阿里的电商业务,即淘宝天猫就是属于“守城防御+易垄断”,说“守城防御”很容易理解,阿里每年7.8亿的中国消费者中,7.26亿来自淘宝和天猫,占93%,你可以从DannyData看出,年度活跃用户数还在稳步增长。
Alibaba’s e-commerce business, Taobao and Tmall, belongs to “guard and defense + easy to monopoly”. It is easy to understand “guard and defense”. Of Alibaba’s 780 million Chinese consumers every year, 726 million are from Taobao and Tmall, accounting for 93%. You can see from DannyData that the number of annual active users is still growing steadily. 

阿里年度活跃用户数

说“易垄断”很容易理解,你也看到了近几年各种垂直电商基本上都会被聚拢或淘汰,活下来的逐渐归顺到大腿旗下,比如阿里收购的网易考拉,真正能威胁到阿里电商的也就剩拼多多和京东了。
It is also easy to understand “easy to monopoly”. You have seen that in recent years, almost all kinds of vertical e-commerce have been gathered or eliminated, and those who have survived are gradually subservient to giants, such as the NetEase Koala acquired by Alibaba. The only ones that can threaten Alibaba’s e-commerce are Pinduoduo and JD.com. 


接着说右上角“跑马圈地+易垄断”,对阿里来说的核心业务就是“本地生活”,本地生活包括三大部分,第一部分餐饮外卖,比如饿了么;第二部分新零售,比如盒马鲜生;第三部分到家服务,比如哈罗单车。真正能和阿里的“本地生活”业务对打的也不多,上的了牌面的也就剩美团和背后大腿腾讯了。
Let’s go on to talk about the upper-right corner of “happy valley enclosure + easy to monopoly”. For Alibaba, the core business is “Local Life”, which consists of three parts. The first part is catering takeout, such as Eleme; the second part is new retail, such as Freshippo; the third part is service to home, such as Hellobike. Few companies can really compete against Alibaba’s “Local Life” business, only Meituan and the giant Tencent are decent and qualified.

如果单看传统的餐饮、零售这些业务本身,其实是很难垄断的,但是如果结合阿里一直强调的“数字化”,在更底层的逻辑就变成易垄断了。这就像早期的手机貌似是一个难垄断的市场,但通过更底层的iOS和安卓操作系统,整个手机生态体系逐渐变成易垄断的市场。
In fact, it is difficult to monopolize the traditional catering and retail business itself, but if combined with the “digitization” that Alibaba has always emphasized, it will become easy to monopolize from a lower logic point of view. It is like the early mobile phone, which seemed to be a difficult market to monopolize, but through the lower level of iOS and Android operating systems, the entire mobile phone ecosystem has gradually become a market that is easy to monopolize.

而模型的右下角“跑马圈地+难垄断”,主要指的是自动驾驶、VR、AR等新技术,这也是阿里的达摩院、平头哥、还有最近的蚂蚁区块链在布局的未来业务,这个我在之后第三点详细聊。
The lower-right corner of the model, “happy valley enclosure + difficult to monopoly", mainly refers to autopilot, VR, AR and other new technologies, which is also the future business that is being laid out by Alibaba’s DAMO Academy, T-Head, and the most recent Ant Blockchain. I will talk in detail later in the third point. 

另外随着一些新技术逐渐成熟,可能从模型的右下角逐渐过渡到左下角,即“守城防御+难垄断”,比如典型的是阿里的云计算,难垄断是因为一些不可言说的安全原因,所以你能看出,整个“丹尼守城跑马模型”其实也是动态的。
With the maturity of some new technologies, there may be a gradual transition from the lower-right corner of the model to the lower-left corner, namely, “guard and defense + difficult to monopoly”, such as Alibaba’s cloud computing. It is difficult to monopolize because of some unspeakable security reasons, so you can see that the “Danny Defense and Enclosure Model” is also dynamic.


这回你应该理解我所说阿里“下个战场”的第一大对手是美团了吧,大公司经常容易犯的错误之一,就是用自己传统的方式疲于应付新入局的对手的攻击,忽视了对未来战场的布局,阿里需要应付的新入局对手是拼多多,而对未来战场布局的对手是美团,阿里的高管们当然深知这个道理,因为当年ebay、甲骨文中国、亚马逊中国等等都是被阿里这么拖死的,阿里自己肯定不想犯当年对手的错误。
Now you should understand why the biggest opponent of Alibaba’s “next battlefield” is Meituan, right? One of the mistakes often made by large companies is to deal with the attacks of new adversaries in their traditional ways, ignoring the layout of the future battlefield. The new opponent Alibaba needs to deal with is Pinduoduo, while the opponent for its future battlefield layout is Meituan. Alibaba’s executives certainly know this truth, because eBay, Oracle China, Amazon China, etc. were defeated by Alibaba in this way. Thus, it certainly does not want to make the same mistake as its opponents did. 

这里说到了阿里、拼多多和美团的关系,还有一个数据可以证明我的观点。阿里的电商有一项核心指标monetization rate,即货币化率,这个指标最早在阿里的招股书中就出现了。
Here we talk about the relationship between Alibaba, Pinduoduo, and Meituan, and there is another piece of data that can prove my point. There exists a core indicator, monetization rate, in Alibaba’s e-commerce, which first appeared in Alibaba’s prospectus.

计算的公式为:
The calculating formula is:

电商的货币化率=平台收入÷平台GMV
Monetization rate of e-commerce = platform revenue / platform GMV


顺便科普一下平台收入和平台GMV的区别。平台GMV即“平台成交总额”,说白了就是你在淘宝上花的钱都是为平台GMV做贡献,但其中阿里因此赚到的才叫平台收入,你可以从DannyData看出,包括了顾客管理收入、其他零售收入和佣金收入。
By the way, I would like to explain the difference between platform revenue and platform GMV. Platform GMV, namely “Platform Gross Merchandise Volume”. All the money you spend on Taobao contributes to the platform GMV, part of which is earned by Alibaba, called platform revenue, including customer management revenue, other retail revenue, and commission revenue as you can see from DannyData.

近几年随着阿里新零售业务的兴起,这个公式稍微有些变化,即:
With the rise of Alibaba’s new retail business in recent years, this formula has changed slightly:

平台GMV=整体GMV-新零售收入
Platform GMV = Overall GMV - New Retail Revenue

货币化率这个指标非常重要,这项指标变化的幅度大小,代表了阿里抵抗拼多多的代价有多大。虽然拼多多和阿里都在搞“百亿补贴”,但百亿在阿里电商的盘子里可算不了什么,事实结果是,货币化率这个指标在近几个季度没有特别明显的变化,说明阿里抵抗拼多多的攻击,没有想象中那么大,反而在本地生活和美团的较量中,阿里付出的代价更多。
The monetization rate is a very important indicator. The magnitude of its change represents the cost of Alibaba’s resistance to Pinduoduo. Although both are engaged in “10-billion-subsidies”, 10 billion yuan is nothing to Alibaba’s e-commerce business. As a matter of fact, Alibaba’s monetization rate has had no obvious changes in recent quarters, indicating that the cost of its resistance to Pinduoduo is not as big as imagined. Instead, it pays more in the contest in terms of Local Life with Meituan. 

比如你可以从DannyData看出,阿里在2020年一季度出现了非常罕见的负自由现金流,而且经营活动产生的现金流也大幅度下滑,表面上看大家都知道是因为疫情的影响,但另一方面也是因为阿里新零售业务的扩大,大家都知道这些和美团竞争的重要战地,都是非常吃库存和吃资产的。
For example, you can see from DannyData that Alibaba had a very rare negative free cash flow in the first quarter of 2020, and the cash flow generated by operating activities also dropped significantly. Seemingly, it was because of the impact of the epidemic as everyone knows, but on the other hand, it was also due to the expansion of Alibaba’s new retail business, which is an important battleground to compete with Meituan and involves a big consumption of inventory and assets.

阿里巴巴自由现金流

阿里在2020年报中显示,有70%的新增年度活跃消费者来自欠发达地区,其中很多人都是先通过本地生活接触支付宝,之后才会逐渐使用阿里其他服务,比如淘宝、天猫、饿了么等等,正如张勇在电话会中所说:
According to Alibaba’s 2020 financial report, 70% of the newly added annual active consumers came from less developed areas. Many of them first touched Alipay through Local Life before gradually using other services of Alibaba, such as Taobao, Tmall, Eleme, and so on. As Zhang Yong said in the earning conference: 


“我们会跟支付宝一起,首先把他们数字化,进一步把他们变成消费者,这是阿里巴巴数字经济体的一体化策略。”
“Together with Alipay, we will first digitize them and further turn them into consumers, which is the integration strategy of Alibaba’s digital economy.” 

再比如在2019年底,饿了么的新增消费者中有48%来自支付宝APP。
At the end of 2019, for another example, 48% of Eleme’s new consumers came from Alipay APP.

既然说到了阿里和美团的关系,其实阿里曾经还在B轮投资过美团,原因很复杂,但大体上是阿里想招安个将军,但成为阿里的一个将军肯定罩不住王兴的野心和能力,王兴的深度思考有多牛掰可以去看DannyData第2集
Now that it comes to the relationship between Alibaba and Meituan, we have to know that Alibaba in fact once invested in Meituan in the Series B Round, but later the two sides fell out, with a very complicated reason. Generally speaking, Alibaba wanted to recruit a general, but becoming a general of Alibaba certainly could not meet Wang Xing’s ambition and ability. If you want to know how extraordinary his deep thinking is, please watch Episode 2 of DannyData.

其实阿里的本地生活业务和要上市的蚂蚁金服有着千丝万缕的联系,你可以从财报里看到阿里持有蚂蚁金服33%的股份,第二第三大股东也是马云相关。
In fact, Alibaba’s Local Life and Ant Financial Services Group which will go public soon are inextricably linked. You can see from the financial report that Alibaba holds 33% of Ant Financial Services Group’s shares, and the second and third largest shareholders are all related to Jack Ma. 

而且阿里的“本地生活”老大今年初换董事长,就是之前和老蒋中路对狙过的蚂蚁金服CEO胡晓明,花名孙权,这点也很好理解,本地生活和支付宝有天然的超强关联度。这个等我以后讲蚂蚁金服时再详细聊,你们感兴趣吗?感兴趣请扣个“感”。
Moreover, the new chairman of Alibaba’s “Local Life” taking office at the beginning of this year is the CEO of Ant Financial Services Group, Hu Xiaoming, whose stage name is Sun Quan. He had debated with Laojiang before. This is also easy to understand because there is a natural super-strong relationship between Local Life and Alipay. I’ll go into details later when I talk about Ant Financial Services Group. Are you interested? Please type “interested” if you are. 

告诉各位一个好消息:DannyData数据可视化小程序和网页版都上线了!你还可以加入同路人招募计划,用每天不到一块钱的价格体验多公司比较、高级图表和专属社群等服务,相比市面上动辄收费每年几万元的数据可视化工具,请把弹幕打在良心上。在小程序搜索dannydata或在网页输入dannydata.com,即可上车。
I have a good news to share with you all. DannyData data visualization applet and website are now online! You can choose to become a paid subscriber and experience multi-company comparison, advanced charts and exclusive community services at a price of less than one yuan a day. Compared with the data visualization tools on the market that charge you a lot, we set our price offer in good conscience. Simply search “dannydata” in the applet or enter dannydata.com online to experience it now.

DannyData.com截图

02 全球化甭想躲

接着说第二点:全球化甭想躲。
The second point: there is no way to hide from globalization. 

其实阿里坚持要做全球化早已不是新闻了,看看阿里财报中的核心战略目标你就更能理解了。阿里5年前定下的2020年目标:超过1万亿美元交易总额已经实现了。
Alibaba’s insistence on globalization is no longer news, which you can better understand after taking a look at the core strategic objective in Alibaba’s financial report. Alibaba has achieved the 2020 goal set by Alibaba five years ago: more than $1 trillion in total transactions.

之后2024年的首要目标就是“推进我们的全球化战略”,而2036年的首要目标是“服务全世界20亿消费者。”
After that, the primary goal in 2024 is to “advance our globalization strategy,” and that in 2036 is“serve 2 billion consumers worldwide.” 

我们目前可以从财报里看出,距离全世界20亿消费者这个目标,还差10来个亿。
We can see from the financial report that it is still more than 1 billion shorts of the goal of 2 billion consumers around the world. 

这两个首要目标说的都是阿里全球化,由此可见阿里的全球化对下一战场有多重要了吧。
These two primary goals are both about Alibaba’s globalization, so we can see how vital its globalization is to the next battlefield. 

全球化的好处自然不用多说,尤其是像马云这种不断强调:
Indeed, there is no need to say much about globalization’s benefits, especially this kind of constant emphasis like Jack Ma: 

马云:“这个时代正在从IT向DT时代的转移。”
Jack Ma: This era is shifting from IT to DT.

DT即数据时代,数据的储存和复制的边际成本几乎为零,意味着数据交换会有乘法效应,被越多人使用,价值就会越大。
DT, Data Times, means that the marginal cost of data storage and replication is almost zero, which means that there is a multiplication effect in data exchange. The more people use it, the higher the value will be. 

这里我做个预测,各国继制裁华为、字节跳动等中国互联网大腿之后,还会制裁阿里,重点在于支付宝和阿里云,大家可以看看我是带预言家还是打脸永动机。
Here, I would like to make a prediction. After sanctioning Huawei, ByteDance, and other Chinese Internet giants, other countries will also sanction Alibaba, with a focus on Alipay and AliCloud. You can see whether I am a prophet or a perpetual motion machine of being proven wrong.

我们不得不承认,中国的科技公司相比硅谷来说,在全球化这一点还是有很大差距的,最早的障碍其实是语言和文化的差别,比如英文作为世界语言确实有它做全球化的优势。但是随着数字化的出现,这种语言和文化上的差距会逐步缩小,正如阿里在财报中所说:
We have to admit that compared with Silicon Valley, Chinese technology companies still have a significant gap in globalization. The earliest obstacle is the differences between languages and cultures. For example, as a world language, English does have its advantages for globalization. However, with the advent of digitization, this linguistic and cultural gap will gradually narrow, as Alibaba said in the financial report: 

“世界正走向数字第一,数字全面覆盖。”
“The world is moving towards digital-first, with digital coverage in an all-round way.”


你可以简单理解为,全球化的前提不再是语言和文化,而是我在第一点所说的数字化变成全球化的前提,正如Scott在《the four》一书中所说:
You can simply interpret that the premise of globalization is no longer language and culture, but digitalization as I mentioned in the first point, as Scott said in his book The Four: 

“覆盖全球不是说要征服世界,而是让企业的服务足够数字化,不因各地文化不同而受影响。"
“Global coverage does not mean conquering the world, but making corporate services digital enough, not being affected by local cultures.”


所以我们也逐渐出现了华为和字节跳动这种出海超牛公司,这个等我以后讲字节跳动时再详细聊吧,你们感兴趣吗?
Therefore, the super companies like Huawei and ByteDance that have a lot of influence abroad are gradually emerging. Let’s go into details later when I talk about ByteDance. Are you interested in that? 

在我看来,阿里走向全球化最大的竞争对手是亚马逊,而阿里走了一条“农村包围城市”的全球化策略,比如从东南亚地区开始切入,逐渐通过本地化运营服务扩散到全球用户。
In my opinion, Alibaba’s biggest competitor to globalization is Amazon, and it has adopted a globalization strategy of “surrounding the cities from the countryside.“ For instance, it is starting from Southeast Asia and gradually spreading to global users through localized operating services. 

当然在这过程中一定会遇到各种挫折,比如印度就是东南亚地区的一大门槛,在6月底封禁了中国59款App,原因大家都懂的。
There, without a doubt, will be all kinds of setbacks in this process. For example, India is a big holdback in Southeast Asia, for it banned China’s 59 Apps at the end of June, you know.

阿里和亚马逊在未来全球化的战场除了大家熟知的电商,其实更在于芯片、云计算、区块链等目前较早期的技术。
In addition to the well-known e-commerce, Alibaba and Amazon will actually focus on chips, cloud computing, blockchain, and other earlier technologies on the battlefield of globalization in the future.

03 引领下一跳跃

也就是我要讲的第三点:引领下一跳跃。
That’s the third point I’m going to make: leading the next leap. 

如果阿里想要走向全球化,一定要引领下一跳跃,而不是像过去几十年的中国科技公司们只是技术的跟随者。
If Alibaba wants to go global, it must lead the next leap, not just being a follower of technology like Chinese technology companies over the past few decades.

什么意思呢?
What does this mean?

虽然我们国家技术发展很快,我们作为中国人非常骄傲,但一定要承认一个事实:绝大多数技术的跳跃不是我们引领的,我们只是等后来技术发展逐渐缓慢,我们再通过大规模市场的应用逐渐跟上世界一流的脚步,这就造成了两大问题:
Although our country’s technology is developing rapidly, and we are very proud as Chinese, we must admit that we did not lead the vast majority of technological leaps. We waited until the technological development slowed down, and gradually caught up with the world-class pace through the application of the large-scale market, which created two major problems: 

第一大问题:我们往往吃不到第一波技术的红利,而且很容易被其他人牵着鼻子走,典型的就是大家都熟悉的手机,当年iPhone出现后中国手机品牌横尸遍野,比如什么波导、小霸王、尼采手机等等,来将已没有姓名。
The first biggest problem: we often could not get the first wave of technology dividends, and were easily dominated by others. The mobile phone that everyone is familiar with is a typical example. After the emergence of the iPhone, Chinese mobile phone brands were everywhere, such as BIRD, SUBOR, NIECHE and so on, all these are now disappeared from the scene.

第二大问题:被人掐住命运的咽喉,比如手机市场上的华为、小米、OV等等虽然发展的很好,但仍然在国外安卓系统说禁你就禁你,而且确实会对国外销量产生严重影响。
The second biggest problem: the throat of fate is holding Chinese companies. For instance, although Huawei, MIUI, OV, etc. in the mobile phone market are developing very well, they are still banned optionally by Android abroad, and there is indeed a severe impact on foreign sales. 

所以,如果阿里想要做好全球化,一定要去引领技术的下一跳跃,这也是为什么阿里有一堆业务赔钱,但仍在坚持大力投入的原因。
Thus, if Alibaba wants to do an excellent job of globalization, it must lead the next leap in technology, which is why there’s a lot of business losing money, and not stopping investing heavily. 

而且你可以从DannyData看出,目前阿里收入仍然是靠“电商核心业务”来撑着:
What’s more, you can see from DannyData that Alibaba’s revenue is just supported by “e-commerce core business”: 

阿里巴巴业务收入细分

那阿里想要去引领,一定会遭受到领先者的毒打,所以我才会在之前预测下一个被美国制裁的会是阿里,典型的就是那些下一跳跃技术,比如云计算、芯片、区块链等等,阿里目前在很多方面的已经做的很厉害,比如阿里云已经是仅次于亚马逊和微软的世界第三大云计算服务商,而蚂蚁金服也有13亿的全球年活跃用户和9个国家的战略合作伙伴,但阿里也绝不能掉以轻心,未来逆境必然是常规节目,也是对阿里逆商的考验。
If Alibaba wants to lead, it will undoubtedly be beaten by the leader. That’s why I predicted that the next one to be sanctioned by the United States would be Alibaba, typically those following leap technologies, such as cloud computing, chips, blockchain, and so on. Alibaba has already done well in many aspects. For example, AliCloud is already the third-largest cloud computing service provider in the world after Amazon and Microsoft. Ant Financial Services Group also has 1.3 billion global annual active users and strategic partners in nine countries. Still, Alibaba must not treat it lightly, because future adversity must be a regular program as well as a test of Alibaba’s adversity quotient.

既然阿里很可能在引领下一跳跃时被制裁,那阿里如何突破制裁呢?
Since Alibaba is likely to be sanctioned when leading the next leap, how can it break through that? 

这里提供一个思路——体系化作战。当年的蒙古骑兵横扫亚欧大陆,还有二战时期的德国横扫欧洲,说实话要说单兵作战,他们都不是最厉害的,比如德国只有在1943-1944年的装备更先进,但在1942年之前德国的坦克装备在苏联面前是纸糊的,那他们靠的是什么获胜呢?体系化作战,比如众所周知的闪电战。
Here is an idea——Systematic Operation. The Mongolian cavalry swept across Eurasia at that time, and Germany swept across Europe during World War II.  To be honest, they were not the best in individual combat; for example, Germany only had more advanced equipment in 1943-1944, but before 1942, German tank equipment was papered in front of the Soviet Union, so why did they win? Because they relied on the systematic operation, such as the well-known blitzkrieg. 

所以,未来想要引领下一技术跳跃,靠的也一定不能是单兵作战,而是要靠体系的力量。
Therefore, if Alibaba wants to lead the next technological leap in the future, it must not fight alone, but rely on the strength of the system. 

比如阿里张勇在电话会说:
For example, Alibaba’s Zhang Yong said in the teleconferencing: 

“在阿里巴巴,我们把Cloud和Intelligence是放在一起的,我们不说这只是一个云服务,而是说一个云+智能服务,这是我们的特色。”
"In Alibaba, we put Cloud and Intelligence together. We don’t call this just a cloud service, but a cloud + intelligent service, which is our characteristic." 

当然还包括我之前所讲的支付宝+本地生活,再比如最近蚂蚁金服的大动作蚂蚁链,虽然我不懂区块链技术,但我知道区块链绝不只是撒币那么简单,以后我可以请区块链大牛来DannyPal节目跟大家讲讲,你们感兴趣吗?
Of course, it also includes the Alipay + Local Life I mentioned earlier, as well as Ant Financial Services Group’s recently major movement - Ant Chain. Although I am not familiar with blockchain technology, I know that it is more than just throwing coins, and I can invite a big fish in the field of blockchain to come to the DannyPal program to tell you about it in the future. Does it appeal to you?

04 我的价值观

今天我讲完了三点阿里的未来战场:都给爷数字化、全球化甭想躲、引领下一跳跃,又到了我最想跟你们聊的:我的价值观。
Today, I have finished talking about three points of Alibaba’s future battlefield:  digitizing all, there is no way to hide from globalization,  and leading the next leap, and then it comes to what I most want to talk to you about: my values. 

我相信大家都看过马云的演讲,你对马云讲过印象最深的一句话是什么呢?对我来说,印象最深的一句话是:
I am sure that everyone has seen Jack Ma’s speeches, and what is the most impressive sentence to you that he said? For me, it is: 


抱歉串场了,其实是这句:
Sorry to be careless, but it’s actually this one: 

马云:“机会在哪里?机会就在抱怨之中。”
Jack Ma: “where is the opportunity? It is in the complaint. ”


换句话说,成功者的共同点在于他们都很乐观。这也让我想起了一句话:“乐观者往往成功,悲观者往往正确。”说白了就是如果你想找一件事做不成的理由,你可以找到千千万万种正确的答案,但真正的成功者,已经去乐观面对挑战了。
In other words, what successful people have in common is that they are all optimistic. It also reminds me of a sentence: “optimists tend to succeed, while pessimists tend to be right.” To put it bluntly, if you want to find a reason you can’t make it, you can find thousands of correct answers, but the real winners are optimistic enough to face the challenge. 

大家都知道新冠疫情给我们带来了很大损失,这个就不用我多说了,我想重点聊聊我们如何用乐观的心态去看待这次疫情,当然我说乐观并不是要你苦笑和傻乐,而是更多去看我们可以收获什么,比如在线教育发展变快了,线下又臭又长的交流大会减少了。
We all know that the COVID-19 epidemic has brought us high losses, so there is no need to say more about this. I feel like focusing on how we treat this epidemic with an optimistic attitude. Optimism, certainly, does not require you to force a smile or giggle,, but to think more about what we can gain, such as the rapid development of online education and the reduction of tedious and lengthy offline communication meetings. 

蚂蚁金服的CEO胡晓明总结的好:
As the CEO Hu Xiaoming of Ant Financial Services Group summed up:

“这次疫情是历史赋予我们最好的机会,也是历史赋予中国数字经济的机会,因为效率会提升,中国整体社会效率会因为疫情提高3%-5%,我们要抓住这次巨大机会,也为全球数字经济的变革贡献经验。”

“The epidemic is the best opportunity given to us by history, and also to China’s digital economy, because efficiency will be improved. China’s overall social efficiency will increase by 3% to 5% as a result of the epidemic. Therefore, we have to seize this huge opportunity for the transformation of the global digital economy."


这段话基本上把我之前所说的三点都概括了。
This paragraph basically sums up the three points I have said before. 

最近看到《三体》的作者刘慈欣在一次访谈里说道:"新冠疫情提醒我们,要避免对未来的直线思维。"
Liu Cixin, the author of The Three-Body Problem , recently said in an interview: “the COVID-19 epidemic reminds us to avoid lineal thinking about the future.”

所以我个人最大的收获在于:更加理解世界是非线性发展的,我们的未来很可能就活在养黑天鹅的池塘里。
So, my biggest personal gain is to understand better that the world is non-linear, and our future is likely to live in a pond of raising black swans. 

黑天鹅事件除了来自外部环境的突变,比如疫情,还可能来自人类社会本身,比如某项科技的重大突破,大家已经看到了人工智能Alpha狗下围棋超越了人类顶级选手柯洁,将来一定还会再出现更牛掰的Beta猫、Omega黑猩猩等等超越人类去干更多事。
In addition to sudden changes in the external environment, such as the epidemic, the “Black Swan” incidents may also be caused by human society, such as a major breakthrough in science and technology. We have already seen that artificial intelligence AlphaGo has surpassed the top human player Ke Jie in playing go. There will certainly be a more awesome Beta cat, Omega chimpanzee, and so on that surpass humans to do more in the future. 

正如比尔盖茨所说:
As Bill Gates said: 


"我们总是高估在一年或者两年中能够做到的,而低估五年或者十年中能够做到的。" 
“We always overestimate what can be done in one or two years and underestimate that in five or ten years.”

所以,面对世界的非线性变化,我们就更需要把各种可能性重新排列组合,比如科幻小说就给我们提供了丰富的思维方式,帮我们做好更加充分的准备,毕竟未来人类需要应对的挑战,难度一定还会超过这次新冠疫情。
Therefore, in the face of the non-linear changes in the world, it is all the more necessary for us to rearrange and recombine all kinds of possibilities, for example, science fiction provides us with a productive way of thinking and helps us to be more fully prepared. After all, the challenges that humanity needs to deal with in the future will certainly be more complicated than the COVID-19 epidemic. 

那未来人类要面对最难的挑战是什么呢?我赞同鲁迅所说:
So what is the most difficult challenge for humanity to deal with in the future? I agree with what Lu Xun said: 


"人类最难预测也最难应对的挑战,并不是来自外部自然的冲击,而是人性的难以琢磨。" 
“The most difficult challenge for human beings to predict and deal with is not the impact of external nature, but the complexity of human nature.”

好吧,我承认鲁迅没有说过这句话,这句话是我说的,人性才是最难以琢磨、也最难应对的挑战,看看"懂王"的各种反人类常识操作,你也就懂了。
Well, I admit that Lu Xun did not say this, but I said. Human nature is the most elusive and tricky challenge to deal with. Just take a look at the various anti-human-common-sense operations of “Mr. Know-all,” and you will understand it. 

最后,以我喜欢的《悲惨世界》中的片段作为结尾:
Finally, I will end with a clip from my favorite movie: Les Miserables: 


我是小丹尼,谈车说科技。如果你认为本集视频对你有帮助,别忘了帮我点赞关注,是我做好下集视频的最大动力。下集DannyData视频我会讲宁德时代,你想听我讲点什么呢?请给我留言。Techs Never Die,回见。
I’m Danny, talking about cars and technology. If you think this video will help you, please don’t forget to give me a like and follow me, which is the biggest motivation to do an excellent job in the next video. In the next episode of DannyData video, I will talk about CATL. What do you want to hear from me? Please leave me a message. 

Techs Never Die, see you next time.

文稿:小丹尼
修改校对:Emma、Vivian
播讲:小丹尼
剪辑/视觉:罗兆吉、小丹尼、Alex、忠彦、新茹、雷杰、晓羽
翻译:Vivian、嘉瑶、Mo

往期回顾


腾讯会走向垄断吗?【DannyData小丹尼第12集】

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